The production resumption meeting in Myanmar's Wa State advances, putting pressure on tin prices. SHFE tin prices jump initially and then pull back [SMM Tin Midday Review]

As of the midday session on July 14, the most-traded SHFE tin contract (2508) opened at a low price, with an opening price of 263,940 yuan/mt (1,690 yuan lower than the previous day's settlement price). During the session, it fluctuated upward, reaching a high of 269,000 yuan/mt. After reaching this high, it dropped back slightly, closing near 266,620 yuan/mt in the midday session, with a gain of approximately 0.37%. Market trading was active, and open interest increased significantly by 2,133 lots.

On the London Metal Exchange (LME), tin prices fluctuated upward, opening at $33,580/mt and currently trading at $33,770/mt, up slightly by 0.61%. Despite the overall positive sentiment in commodities driven by rising international oil prices, tin prices struggled to rebound due to the suppression of risk appetite amid global trade frictions.

Slow production resumption in Myanmar: The resumption of tin ore production in Myanmar's Wa region continues to progress, but the actual ore output remains limited. Additionally, Thailand's ban on the transit of Myanmar's tin ore has blocked import channels, leaving the issue of raw material shortages at domestic smelters unresolved.

Sluggish spot trades: Downstream buyers have weak willingness to restock at lower prices, and trading volume has quickly turned sluggish after prices rose. Traders are actively shipping goods, but inquiries have decreased.

In the short term, tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating and weak trend. Although there are supply-side disruptions, the expected strengthening of production resumption in Myanmar, coupled with the deepening of the off-season in demand, makes it difficult to change the weak supply and demand situation. From a technical perspective, the most-traded SHFE tin contract is under pressure at the 268,000 yuan resistance level, with support referenced in the 258,000-260,000 yuan range. For LME tin, attention should be paid to the 33,000-33,800 US dollar fluctuation range. It is necessary to closely monitor the potential for increased volatility risks triggered by the actual progress of ore production in Myanmar and the implementation of US tariff details.